Extreme Weather Events and Crop Price Spikes in a Changing Climate

Illustrative global simulation scenarios

Published: 5 September 2012
Dirk Willenbockel, Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, UK

Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability and weather extremes.

Various impact studies have considered the effects of projected long-run trends in temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentrations caused by climate change on global food production and prices. But an area that remains under-explored is the food price impacts that may result from an expected increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

This study uses a global dynamic multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to explore the potential food price impacts of a number of extreme weather event scenarios in 2030 for each of the main exporting regions for rice, maize and wheat.

Related links

Issue briefing: Extreme Weather, Extreme Prices: The costs of feeding a warming world

Related report: Exploring Food Price Scenarios Towards 2030 With a Global Multi-Region Model (2011)

Issues: Food price spikes

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