2 In Niger 44 per cent of children suffer from chronic malnutrition, World Food Programme,



5 J. Von Braun (2008) ‘Food and Financial Crises: Implications for Agriculture and the Poor’, IFPRI Food Policy Report. Washington DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.


7 For example, Nike and Apple publicly left the US Chambers of Commerce when it refused to back US climate legislation.

8 REN21 (2010) 'Renewables 2010: Global Status Report',

9 The IPCC AR4 Working Group on Mitigation (Working Group III) found that, ‘For the lowest mitigation scenario category assessed, CO2 emissions would need to peak by 2015’. See: IPCC (2007) ‘Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, An Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’, Geneva: IPCC: Footnote 20.

10 FAO (2009) ‘How to Feed the World in 2050’.


12 Oxfam calculations based on

13 HSBC (2011) ‘The world in 2050’.

14 M. Cecchini, F. Sassi, J.A. Lauer, Yong Y Lee, V. Guajardo-Barron, D. Chisholm (2010) ‘Tackling of unhealthy diets, physical activity, and obesity: health effects and cost-effectiveness’, The Lancet, Vol. 376, 20 November 2010, pp.1775–83.

15 Foresight (2007) ‘Tackling Obesities: Future Choices’, The Government Office for Science, London. In the developing world obesity tends to be concentrated in the middle classes – those who lead more sedentary lifestyles and consume more processed foods; in the rich world it is a scourge of poor people, because healthy foods are frequently more expensive. In the USA, seven of the ten states with the highest poverty levels are also among the ten states with the highest rates of obesity,

16 R. Trostle (2008) ‘Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices’. Demand for food is expected to increase at an average rate over 1.3 per cent per year through to 2050 (average compound growth rate, based upon a 70 per cent increase in demand by 2050).

17 R. Trostle (2008), op. cit.

18 The total area under irrigation is forecast to increase by only 9 per cent between 2000 and 2050, Global Water Security (2010) ‘Engineering the Future’. See also Bruinsma (2009) ‘The Resource Outlook to 2050: By How Much Do Land, Water Use and Crop Yields Need to Increase by 2050?’, paper presented at the Expert Meeting on How to Feed the World in 2050, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. This argues that the area equipped for irrigation could increase by 11 per cent from 2005 to 2050, with the expansion concentrated in East and South Asia, and Near East/North Africa.

19 In the semi-arid tropics – which lie primarily in developing countries where agriculture is almost entirely rain-fed and largely comprises poor, smallholder farms – potential yields under high inputs and advanced management are on average 3.6 times more than current average yields. Soil moisture management and rainwater harvesting could add an additional 10% on average to these high input potentials, while further reducing the variability in yields and number of failure years. See

20 Calculated from OECD DAC5 database ‘Official Bilateral Commitments by Sector’; includes forestry and fishing.

21 OECD Producer Support Estimate in 2006 was $252,508m, see

22 OECD ODA on agriculture in 2006 was $3.2bn.

23 OECD (2009) ‘Agricultural Policies in OECD Countries: Monitoring and Evaluation 2009’.

24 Legrain (2010) ‘Beyond CAP: Why the EU Budget Needs Reform’, the Lisbon Council e-brief, Issue 09/2010.

25 Rich countries were estimated to be spending at least $13–15bn a year on biofuel subsidies in the run-up to the 2008 food price crisis. Increasing demand for biofuels was estimated to account for about 30 per cent of food price rises over the period in question, Oxfam (2008) ‘Another Inconvenient Truth’,

26 Oxfam International (2010) ‘Halving Hunger’,

27 World Bank,

28 One major review recently concluded that ‘we should work on the assumption that there is little new land for agriculture’, Foresight (2011) ‘The Future of Food and Farming, Final Project Report’, The Government Office for Science, London, Another quantifies ‘little’ as an increase in arable area of 12.4 per cent in the developing world – where the vast majority of potential new land is found – by 2050, see

29 p13.

30 D. Molden (ed.) (2007) Water for Food, Water for Life: A Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management, London: Earthscan, and Colombo: International Water Management Institute.

31 R. Clarke and J. King (2004) The Atlas of Water, London: Earthscan Books.



34 Brown (2011) ‘The Great Food Crisis of 2011’, Foreign Policy, January 10, 2011.

35 Middle Eastern states are estimated to account for over a fifth of identified investments in sub-Saharan Africa.

36 Demand for land in Africa has been estimated by the World Bank as 39.7m hectares in 2009, compared with a mean annual area expansion of 1.7m hectares over the period 1961–2007.

37 From preliminary data of a monitoring project of large-scale land acquisitions by Oxfam, CIRAD, CDE at University of Bern, and International Land Coalition. The data (March 2011) is currently being verified and will be released in full in September 2011. Land deals included in the database run from 2001 onwards, though the majority of deals are from 2007 to 2011.

38 Obtaining reliable data on land investments is almost impossible: transparency is minimal and deals are often shrouded in corruption and malfeasance. Oxfam is working with the International Land Coalition, the International Centre for Agricultural Research for Development, and the Centre for Development and Environment at the University of Bern to verify and aggregate existing data and to collect new data from the field. More details can be found at

39 World Bank (2010) ‘Rising Global Interest in Farmland: Can it Yield Sustainable and Equitable Benefits?’, September 2010, p.45.

40 Ibid. The most comprehensive research to date suggests that 80% of projects reported in the media are underdeveloped, and only 20% had begun actual farming.

41 Susan Payne, founder and chief executive of Emergent Asset Management, quoted in ‘Food is Gold, So Billions Invested in Farming’, Diana B. Henriques, New York Times, 05 June 2008.

42 Based on presentation by Susan Payne, CEO Emergent Asset Management, at the World Agriculture Investment Conference, 2010.

43 Based on one study in the Philippines, see

44 W. Cline (2007) ‘Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country’, Center for Global Development. Available at

45 S. Jennings and J. Magrath (2009) ‘What Happened to the Seasons?’, Oxfam GB.


47 Oxfam (2010) ‘Crying Wolf: Industry lobbying and climate change in Europe’, Oxfam Media Briefing, 21 November 2010,

48 ‘Cap or Trap? How the EU ETS risks locking-in carbon emissions’, Sandbag, 2010

49 Greenpeace (2008) ‘Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential’,

50 Ibid.

51 Emissions from fertilizer use and cattle are forecast to increase by 35–60 per cent by 2030, Greenpeace (2008) op. cit.

52 ibid.

53 Cheng Hai Teoh (2010) ‘Key Sustainability Issues in the Palm Oil Sector’, A Discussion Paper for Multi-Stakeholders Consultations (commissioned by the World Bank Group).

54 Oxfam calculation.

55 Cheng Hai Teoh (2010) op. cit.

56 Oxfam International (2008) ‘Another Inconvenient Truth’, op. cit.

57 D. Willenbockel (2011) 'Exploring Food Price Scenarios Towards 2030 with a Global Multi-Region Model', commissioned by Oxfam as background research for the campaign 'Grow: Food. Life. Planet' from Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, UK. Oxford: Oxfam and IDS.

58 This background paper aims to contribute to this Oxfam report by exploring a range of scenarios through the GLOBE model. The methodology and assumptions on which it is based are fully detailed in the background research report, available at

59 The IFPRI model shows 49 million fewer malnourished children in developing countries by 2050 (baseline) than in 2010; with climate change it shows 37 million fewer. See

60 World Bank (2008) ‘Rising Food and Fuel Prices: Addressing the Risks to Future Generations’, see The model considers two opposite effects at work that determine the food share in total household expenditure. With rising per-capita income the food share drops – rich households/countries spend a far lower proportion of their income on food than poor ones. Rises in food prices relative to other goods have an opposite effect on the food share.




64 Foresight (2011) op. cit., 4.4.

65 Ibid.

66 CIPCA-OXFAM, ‘Agroforestry Systems in Bolivia: A way of life, a way to adapt’, forthcoming in 2011.

67 UNHDR (2006), ‘Beyond Scarcity: Power, poverty and the global water crisis’.


69 United Nations Human Rights Council: Preliminary study of the Human Rights Council Advisory Committee on discrimination in the context of the right to food, 22 February 2010, p. 12.]

70 G. Nanda, K. Switlick and E. Lule (2005) ‘Accelerating Progress towards Achieving the MDG to Improve Maternal Health: A Collection of Promising Approaches’, HNP, World Bank. See


72 USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, ‘2007 Census of Agriculture – United States Data’, Table 58, p. 66–7.

73 Censo Agropecuario Nacional 2003,

74 Nidhi Tandon (2010) ‘New agribusiness investments mean wholesale sell-out for women farmers’, Gender and Development, Vol. 18(3) November 2010.

75 The study concluded that in many instances large-scale acquisitions ‘contributed to loss of livelihoods’, and identified problems such as ‘displacement of local people without compensation, land being given away at below its potential value, and negative knock-on effects on other nearby areas’. World Bank (2010) ‘Rising Global Interest in Farmland’, p.xxi.

76 This aggregate figure masks important differences between countries even within the same region. In Africa, for example, the share of landowners who are women ranges from less than 5 per cent in Mali to over 30 per cent in Botswana, Cape Verde and Malawi.



79 Based on 2007 sales figures in global proprietary seed market, G. Meijerink and M. Danse, (2009) ‘Riding the Wave: High Prices, Big Business? The role of multinationals in the international grain markets’, LEI Wageningen UR.

80 Based on Ibisworld, ‘Global Fertilizers and Agricultural Chemicals Manufacturing 10’ (2009), quoted in ‘TNCs and the Right to Food’, paper authored by the Law Students for Human Rights at New York University School of Law, prepared at the request of the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food, 2009. The top six producers are BASF, Bayer, Dow, DuPont, Monsanto, and Syngenta.

81 The Brazilian Research Institution EMBRAPA is one of the world’s largest funders of agricultural R&D with a budget of about $1.1bn. China’s agricultural R&D spend has increased at about 10 per cent per annum since 2001, totalling $1.8bn in 2007.

82 For background see, M. Hendrickson, J. Wilkinson, W. Heffernan and R. Gronski (2008) ‘The Global Food System and Nodes of Power’, an analysis prepared for Oxfam America, 2008; On the ‘modus operandi’, see Etc Group Communique ‘Patenting the “Climate Genes”…And Capturing the Climate Agenda’, available at


84 US Federal spending on agricultural science in 2007 was $1.1bn. CGIAR’s annual budget is $500m.

85 Arcand (2004) in M. Mercoiret and J.M Mfou’ou (2006) ‘Rural Producer Organisations, Empowerment of Farmers and Results of Collective Action’, Theme No 1, ‘Rural Producer Organisations for Pro-Poor Sustainable Development’, report of the Paris Workshop, WDR 2008: Agriculture for Development.

86 Research by Leuven University cited in GCGF and CIPE (2007) ‘Corporate Governance and Co-operatives’, Workshop Report of Peer Review Workshop, 8 February 2007, London, convened by Global Corporate Governance Forum (GCGF) and Centre for International Private Enterprise (CIPE).

87 IDS (2008) ‘Reforming Land Reform in the Philippines’. Note that many issues remain, for example, much of the land so far redistributed has been marginal, and at prices that many believe have been too high.


89 D. Green (2008) From Poverty to Power, p.31, p.146.

90 Von Braun (2008) op. cit. See

91 FAO (2008) ‘Crop Prospect and Food Situation’

92 World Bank,,,contentMDK:21827681~pagePK:64257043~piPK:437376~theSitePK:4607,00.html

93 Ivanic and Martin (2008) ‘The Implications of Higher Global Food Prices for Poverty in Low-Income Countries’, World Bank Policy Research Working Papers.


95 Giminez and Patel (2009), Food Rebellions, Pambazuka Press, p18.

96 Javier Blas, ‘Tackle Export Bans to Ease Food Crisis’, Financial Times 3 February 2011.

97 In 2011, Cargill is heading for its best year yet on the back of crop disruptions and price volatility. ‘Cargill posted solid earnings in a period of volatile commodity markets and geopolitical change,’ said Greg Page, chairman and chief executive. Gregory Meyer, ‘Cargill Set for Record Yearly Profit’, Financial Times, 13 April 2011, see

98 Gregory Meyer, ‘Bunge Rides on Volatility of Food Markets’, Financial Times, 28 December 2010, see

99 One example is the Alliance for Abundant Food and Energy, founded by ADM, Monsanto, and the Renewable Fuels Association in the USA.


101 Lester Brown (2011) ‘World on the Edge: How to Prevent Environmental and Economic Collapse’, Earth Policy Institute.

102 Ibid.

103 World Bank (2008) ‘Double Jeopardy: Responding to High Food and Fuel Prices’, paper prepared for G8 Hokkaido-Toyako Summit, 2 July 2008. See



106 F. Kaufman (2010) ‘The food bubble: how Wall Street starved millions and got away with it’, Harper’s Magazine, 32, July 2010.

107 See, for instance, FAO (2010) ‘Final Report of the Committee on Commodity Problems: Extraordinary Joint Intersessional Meeting of the Intergovernmental Group (IGG) on Grains and the Intergovernmental Group on Rice’; O. de Schutter (UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food) (2010) ‘Food Commodities Speculation and Food Price Crises: Regulation to Reduce the Risks of Financial Volatility; C. Gilbert (Trento University) (2010) ‘How to Understand High Food Prices’, Journal of Agricultural Economics; or World Bank (2010) ‘Placing the 2006/2008 Commodity Price Boom into Perspective’.

108 UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs’ Financial Tracking Service. The data are posted at

109 A. Evans (2010) ‘Globalization and Scarcity: Multilateralism for a World with Limits’, NYU Center on International Cooperation. Available at

110 The World Food Programme’s (WFP) current emergency operations are only 65 per cent funded, while its operations in more protracted hunger situations are less than half funded. WFP, ‘Resource Situation Summary’, 27 February 2011, Summary Chart of Confirmed Contributions to Emergency Operations (EMOPS), WFP, Resource Situation Summary, 27 February 2011, Summary Chart of Confirmed Contributions to Protracted Relief Operations (PRROs),

111 WFP INTERFAIS Reporting System (measures of food in metric tons), 1988–2009. Report generated on 18 April 2011,;2008;2007;2006;2005;2004;2003;2002;2001;2000;1999;1998;1997;1996;1995;1994;1993;1992;1991;1990;1989;1988/donor/All/mode/All/cat/All/recipient/All/code/All/basis/0/subtotal/0/

112 WFP INTERFAIS Reporting System (measures of food in metric tons), 1988–2009. Report generated on 18 April 2011,;2008;2007;2006;2005;2004;2003;2002;2001;2000;1999;1998;1997;1996;1995;1994;1993;1992;1991;1990;1989;1988/donor/United+States+of+America/mode/All/cat/All/recipient/All/code/All/basis/0/subtotal/0/

113 US Government Accountability Office (GAO) (2009) ‘International Food Assistance: Local and Regional Procurement Can Enhance the Efficiency of US Food Aid, but Challenges May Constrain Its Implementation Purchase’, GAO-09-570. Washington, DC: GAO.

114 Oxfam America (2011) ‘Under Pressure: reducing disaster risk and enhancing US emergency response capacity in an era of climate change’.

115 Based on 2009 food aid volumes. Oxfam calculation based on data from Note: The USA has begun pre-positioning its food aid at strategic points around the globe. This has decreased the amount of time it takes for food aid to arrive at its destination, however, it may actually increase the total cost of delivery due to storage costs at the strategic points and in an additional transport step. This may lower the 15.2% figure, and therefore the absolute number of additional beneficiaries, slightly.

116 Oxfam International (2010) ‘Righting Two Wrongs: Making a New Global Climate Fund Work for Poor People’, see

117 UN High Level Task Force on the Global Food Crisis, Comprehensive Framework for Action 2008, p.9.

118 World Bank, World Development Indicators.

119 calculated from

120 calculated from

121 calculated from

122 The proportion of people undernourished in Brazil fell from 11% in 1990–2 to 6% in 2005–6 (reduction of 45%), see

123 CONSEA 2009 ‘Building up the National Policy and System for Food and Nutrition Security: the Brazilian experience’

124 World Bank (2008) ‘Double Jeopardy’, op. cit. See

125 IEA (2010) ‘World Energy Outlook 2010’ estimates support for biofuels in 2009 was $20bn, the bulk of it in the USA and EU. This figure is projected to rise to $45bn by 2020 and $65bn by 2035.

126 There has been limited progress in this area with the creation of the UN Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) in 2006, to ensure that resources are available for underfunded emergency responses and sudden-onset crises. It is a central fund, and most of its money is not earmarked for any specific use. However, while this has eased the problem of a lack of voluntary donor funding for some emergencies, it merely shifts the problem to another arena, since the CERF itself depends on donor willingness to replenish it.

127 There has also been limited progress towards more cash-based programming. WFP has embraced the idea but in 2010–11 only devoted 7 per cent of its portfolio to cash programming. (J. Prout, WFP, ‘Cash and Vouchers’, presentation to WFP 2nd Global Cash and Vouchers Workshop, 22–3 November 2010, Rome). Donors, too, are changing, but many still devote the bulk of their funding to food aid. For example, DG ECHO currently allocates about 10% of its food assistance portfolio to cash, while 60% goes to in-kind support (the remainder goes to a mix of the two). DG ECHO, ‘DG ECHO Perspectives on Cash Transfer Programming’, presentation to CaLP global learning event, 16 February 2011, Bangkok.

128 World Bank (2008) ‘Double Jeopardy’, op. cit.

129 UN High Level Task Force on the Global Food Crisis (2008) Comprehensive Framework for Action.

130 For example, on cash transfers, see

131 The UN Social Protection Floor (SPF) Initiative promotes universal access to essential social transfers and services. Calculations by various UN agencies show that a basic floor of social transfers is globally affordable at virtually any stage of economic development, even if the funding is not yet available everywhere. The SPF corresponds to a set of basic social rights, services and facilities that all people should enjoy. See


133 Oxfam International (2010) ‘Halving Hunger’, op. cit.

134 Ibid.

135 A key deliverable for the CFS is a new Global Strategic Framework on Food Security and Nutrition – a dynamic framework which can provide a set of rules to ensure co-operation and policy coherence between countries and which can evolve to meet the challenges arising in the age of growing crisis.

136 FAO High-Level Expert Forum (2009) ‘The Special Challenge for Sub-Saharan Africa’,

137 The Economist, August 26 2010, ‘The Miracle of the Cerrado’,

138 Agriculture is the most important source of employment for women in rural areas in most developing country regions, FAO (2011) ‘State of Food and Agriculture’.

139 Growth originating in agriculture, in particular the smallholder sector, is at least twice as effective in benefiting the poorest people as growth from non-agricultural sectors, FAO (2010) ‘How to Feed the World’, p.2. See also Ha-Joon Chang (2009) ‘Rethinking Public Policy in Agriculture: Lessons from History, Distant and Recent’, Journal of Peasant Studies, 36:3, July 2009, pp.477-515.

140 Jules Pretty et al., ‘Resource-Conserving Agriculture Increases Yields in Developing Countries’, Environmental Science and Technology, 40:4, 2006, pp. 1114−9. The 79% figure refers to the 360 reliable yield comparisons from 198 projects. There was a wide spread in results, with 25 per cent of projects reporting a 100% increase or more.

141 J. Pretty et al., ‘Sustainable Intensification in African Agriculture’, International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, 9:1, forthcoming in 2011.

142 Africare, Oxfam America, WWF–ICRISAT Project (2010) ‘More Rice for People, More Water for the Planet’, WWF–ICRISAT Project, Hyderabad, India.

143 FAOSTAT database and Foresight (2011) op. cit., figure 4.1

144 Low yields do not mean low productivity. The former measures harvest per unit area. The latter measures harvest divided across all factors of production: land, capital, and so on.

145 ‘A Special Report on Feeding the World’, The Economist, Feburary 24, 2011.

146 UNEP (2010) Africa Water Atlas: Improving the Quantity, Quality and Use of Africa’s Water,

147 IFAD (2011) ’High-yielding varieties of rice have been adopted on more than 200,000 hectares of farmland’, Rural Poverty Report,


149 Down from 20.4% in 1983. Calculated from OECD DAC5 Official Bilateral Commitments by Sector database. Includes forestry and fishing.

150 Progress has been uneven – but the number of countries reaching or exceeding the goal had doubled by 2006, CAADP (2009) ‘How are Countries Measuring up to the Maputo Declaration?’, CAADP Policy Brief, June 2009.

151 The Economist, 25 February 2011.


153 The food and drinks company, Mars, recently entered into a collaboration with IBM and the US Department of Agriculture to sequence the cocoa genome and make it publicly available, arguing that in the long-run this will improve the sustainability of cocoa production, most of which comes from small farmers. See

154 The Cartagena Dialogue for Progressive Action is an informal space open to all countries negotiating towards an agreement under the UNFCCC. It aims to provide a forum in which parties can step outside of their traditional negotiating blocs and openly discuss their positions and the rationales behind them, with a view to consensus building and furthering progress within the formal negotiations. It is currently attended by 30 countries.

155 UNEP (2011) Towards a Green Economy.

156 ‘Sustainable Bioenergy: A Framework for Decision Makers’, UN–Energy, 2007.

157 Based on a one-third increase in oil prices over the next two years.


159 UNEP (2010) ‘Universal Ownership: Why environmental externalities matter to institutional investors’.

160 Chinese GDP in 2010 was estimated at $5.75 trillion at official exchange rates according to the CIA factbook.

161 According to Pew Centre Research, China topped the G20 renewable investment league table – investing $34.6bn in 2009, compared to $18.6bn in the USA, in second place