A child under five could die every forty seconds by 2030 due to U.S. aid cuts, Oxfam analysis finds

Publié: 15th janvier 2026

One year since Trump administration’s slashing of U.S. lifesaving aid, deadly impacts continue to grow

The series of cruel and illegal cuts to U.S. lifesaving humanitarian and development aid the Trump administration initiated on day one has already cost lives and undermined the entire global aid system. Oxfam analysis of aid cut impact predictions finds that that these actions have led to the risk that a child under 5 could die every 40 seconds by 2030. Already, conservative estimates projected that 200,000 children under five would die in 2025 due to these cuts, leading to the first rise in under-five child mortality this century.

President Trump’s freeze on lifesaving aid and subsequent closure of USAID left millions of people living through crisis without lifesaving food, water, healthcare and other basic support. Chaotic and cruel bureaucratic processes and additional rollbacks came in the months to follow, and billions of dollars already approved by Congress were slashed from the U.S. humanitarian assistance budget, leaving vital programs in limbo or forced to close.

And while the Trump administration's recent pledge of $2 billion to the UN for humanitarian assistance is welcome, it addresses a mere fraction of its previous cuts, and it is unclear if more funding will follow.

“We have run out of words to describe the depths of suffering we have witnessed after President Trump took a sledgehammer to U.S. humanitarian assistance and the entire global aid system. We are seeing years of progress unravel, and more children suffer and die preventable deaths because of these cuts,” said Abby Maxman, President and CEO of Oxfam America. 

“The stories of people who have lost access to lifesaving aid are harrowing. I met a young woman in the Democratic Republic of the Congo who was forced to resort to sex work for survival as well as a mother whose daughters are pregnant from rape they endured while working in unsafe conditions – all because they felt they had no other way of feeding their families after conflict destroyed their community and there was no food available.”

Instability and humanitarian challenges are rapidly growing as the global system was already overstretched and is now pushed beyond its limit. Many organizations operating as a lifeline to people in need were forced to shutter their operations overnight and no longer have the resources to carry out programs necessary for children and families to survive. 

Oxfam America does not accept US government funding, but program teams have felt the ripple effects as partners, including the United Nations, had to scale back and halt programs due to these funding cuts. 

"Amidst a devastating civil war and thousands of refugees in dire need after fleeing conflict in neighboring Sudan, South Sudan is receiving the lowest amount of humanitarian aid since the country was established. Water borne illnesses are spreading rapidly, starvation is imminent for many, and while needs are rising, lifesaving organizations are working with a fraction of the resources we had in previous years. Oxfam, along with many other vital organizations, will be forced to scale down our programs without immediate intervention," said Shabnam Baloch, Country Director for Oxfam in South Sudan.

"The Philippines was hit with the most powerful storms on earth recorded last year — communities were devastated, families were left with nothing, and people were killed in flooding and earthquakes. CDP works with local communities to prepare for disasters and develop evacuation and mitigation plans, but because of aid cuts, we had to cancel programs across 8 communities impacting over 2,000 families. Disasters due to natural hazards are coming at us faster and faster, and people could die if not supported by local organizations,” said Mayfourth Luneta, Deputy Executive Director of the Center for Disaster Preparedness Foundation, an Oxfam partner in the Philippines.

“After the suspension of U.S. humanitarian assistance funds last January, GOPA-DERD had to drastically reduce the scale and scope of our programs for Syrian families and Iraqi refugees residing in Syria. To receive the Trump Administration's ‘lifesaving assistance’ waiver for the remainder of our allocated funding, we were forced to end our educational and psychosocial support programs — including tuition assistance, psychological counselling and medications, case management, and gender-based violence services. We were notified we will no longer receive funding from the U.S. government, and thousands of people are left without crucial services necessary to rebuild their lives after a catastrophic civil war,” said Sara Savva, Deputy Director-General for GOPA-DERD, the humanitarian arm of the Greek Orthodox Patriarchate of Antioch and All the East and Oxfam partner in Syria.

One year on, Congress and the Trump Administration must acknowledge the deadly consequences of these cuts and restore more funding to the communities who are facing hunger, conflict, and insecurity now without the support they need and deserve. This aid should be given without political strings and be delivered to frontline organizations who are courageously doing all they can to save and improve lives in spite of the overwhelming lack of resources. Oxfam is continuing the fight to end this assault on lifesaving assistance through continued legal action, working with local humanitarian organizations to best fill the gaps caused by aid cuts, and advocating for a restoration of U.S. funding.

/ENDS

Notes aux rédactions

Notes to Editors:

Contact

Hanna Nussair
Media Officer
Washington, DC
Email: hanna.nussair@oxfam.org

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