Extreme Weather Events and Crop Price Spikes in a Changing Climate

Illustrative global simulation scenarios

Publication date: 5 septembre 2012
Auteur: Dirk Willenbockel, Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, UK

Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability and weather extremes.

Various impact studies have considered the effects of projected long-run trends in temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentrations caused by climate change on global food production and prices. But an area that remains under-explored is the food price impacts that may result from an expected increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

This study uses a global dynamic multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to explore the potential food price impacts of a number of extreme weather event scenarios in 2030 for each of the main exporting regions for rice, maize and wheat.

Related links

Issue briefing: Extreme Weather, Extreme Prices: The costs of feeding a warming world

Related report: Exploring Food Price Scenarios Towards 2030 With a Global Multi-Region Model (2011)

Issues: Food price spikes

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