Exploring Food Price Scenarios Towards 2030 With a Global Multi-Region Model

Publication date: 31 mai 2011
Auteur: D. Willenbockel, Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, UK

This report is a contribution to the Oxfam campaign ‘Grow: Food.Life.Planet’. It explores a range of scenarios for food price increases to 2030 through the GLOBE model. Over and above providing a global perspective, the research provides disaggregated results for a range of countries and country groups.

The scenarios include:

  • Business-as-usual scenarios for 2020 and 2030 under current growth and productivity projections. The focus is on predicted price increases for the major traded agricultural food commodities (rice, wheat and maize) in sub-Saharan Africa (disaggregated by region), Central America, North Africa, and other low-income countries and regions; on the domestic supply responses in these regions; on international trade in agricultural commodities; and on food consumption per capita.
  • Scenarios of climate change impacts on agricultural productivity by crop and its consequences for food production and prices in sub-Saharan African regions and other developing countries;
  • Alternative scenarios in which national agricultural productivity rises above predicted trend levels;
  • For regions in sub-Saharan Africa, a scenario in which anticipated climate change impacts on yields are negated or reduced through adaptation and wider measures.

This report is intended to contribute to the case for more effective international responses to the food security threats posed by rising food prices. A commentary on the results of this research is contained in the report Growing a Better Future.