Impacts of Low Aggregate INDCs Ambition

Research commissioned by Oxfam

Ahead of COP21 in Paris, countries have tabled their emissions reductions pledges in the form of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). New Oxfam-commissioned research, carried out by Climate Analytics, uses modelling to assess the impact of aggregate INDC ambition. It estimates that 3°C of warming, compared with 2°C of warming, could mean that developing countries are faced with an additional $600bn per year in economic losses by 2050, and see their adaptation finance needs raised by almost $300bn per year by the same date. The technical specifications and calibration of the models used are explained in this paper. 

Data from this research is presented in the ‘Game-changers in the Paris climate deal’ briefing.