Through a Participatory Capacity and Vulnerability Assessment (PCVA), community members analyze local risks, capacities, and priorities, ensuring humanitarian and development interventions are informed by community perspectives in Wulu County. (Photo: Mayen Yak Chol/Oxfam)
For generations, communities across South Sudan have relied on seasonal weather patterns to guide planting, grazing, fishing, and daily life. Today, however, many people say those patterns are becoming increasingly difficult to predict. Rain may arrive late, end earlier than expected, or come in intense bursts that trigger flooding and damage crops.
In Wulu County and Rumbek Centre County of Lakes State, people often speak about the weather in practical terms: whether crops will germinate, whether grazing areas will recover, or whether roads will remain passable long enough to reach a market or health facility.
What many communities are experiencing is part of a larger climate reality facing South Sudan and the wider region in East Africa.
Across East Africa, communities are confronting increasingly frequent and severe climate shocks, from prolonged dry spells and droughts to destructive floods. In 2023, El Niño-related heavy rains and flooding affected approximately 451,000 people in South Sudan and more than 5 million people across Eastern Africa, disrupting livelihoods, damaging infrastructure, and increasing humanitarian needs. As climate change continues to amplify weather extremes, communities become increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate patterns such as El Niño. In this context, preparedness is no longer optional; it is essential.
One important tool is the Participatory Capacity and Vulnerability Assessment (PCVA) a community-led process that helps people identify local hazards, understand vulnerabilities, and map existing strengths and capacities. Rather than focusing solely on risks, the process encourages communities to analyze what resources, knowledge, and coping mechanisms already exist and how these can be strengthened.
Recent PCVA exercise facilitated by Oxfam in South Sudan with funding from German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development BMZ, communities in Wulu and Rumbek Centre, in Lakes State identified prolonged dry spells, drought, flooding, environmental degradation, crop losses and pressure on natural resources among the risks affecting their daily lives. These hazards do not occur in isolation. A failed farming season can reduce household incomes, increase food insecurity, and heighten competition over already limited resources. When floods follow drought, recovery becomes even more difficult.
For 54-year-old farmer Abraham Mabor from Wulu County, the challenge is not simply that hazards occur. It is that they are becoming less predictable.
When we prepare our land, we are making decisions based on what we expect the season to do," he explains." Sometimes the rains delay. Other times they come heavily and damage what people have planted. It becomes difficult to plan because the patterns we relied on are changing.
His experience reflects a broader trend. In recent years, East Africa has experienced both prolonged drought and severe flooding. In 2023, El Niño-associated heavy rains and flooding affected hundreds of thousands of people in South Sudan and millions across the region, damaging roads, farms, homes, water systems and public infrastructure.
Yet communities are not approaching these risks without knowledge or solutions.
The PCVA process highlighted local capacities that already exist within communities, including traditional weather observation, local leadership structures, community networks, sustainable farming practices, savings groups and natural resource management systems. These local strengths provide an important foundation for preparedness and adaptation efforts.
During consultations, community members worked alongside local authorities and disaster management structures to analyse hazards, identify vulnerabilities and map practical actions that could reduce risk before disasters occur.
For Mary Atong, who participated in the discussions, one lesson stood out.
We cannot stop droughts or floods from happening. But we can prepare better when communities have information and plans in place before a problem becomes an emergency.
That principle is at the heart of disaster risk reduction. Too often, funding and attention arrive after homes have been flooded, crops have failed, or families have been displaced. Yet evidence from around the world shows that investments in preparedness, early warning systems, climate information services and community resilience are significantly more effective and less costly than responding after a crisis unfolds. The World Meteorological Organization and humanitarian agencies continue to call for greater investment in early warning systems and climate adaptation across Africa as climate risks intensify.
As the world marked International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction yesterday, the experiences of communities in Lakes State point to a clear priority for South Sudan.
Disaster risk reduction should not be treated as a seasonal activity activated only during floods or droughts. It requires sustained investment in community-led preparedness, functioning early warning systems, climate information that reaches rural communities, resilient water infrastructure, and livelihood programs that help households adapt to a changing climate.
Communities in Wulu and Rumbek Centre already understand the risks they face. What they need is greater support to put their knowledge into action. As climate change continues to amplify weather extremes and influence the impacts of climate patterns such as El Niño, building resilience before the next shock is no longer a development option. It is a necessity.